Market brief · Thursday, 29 October 2026
Oil above $110, a cautious Fed and pricier fuel in Kenya
A Houthi attack on a Saudi refinery kept oil above $110 a barrel. The US Federal Reserve held rates but two members wanted a hike, so a December rise is now widely expected. Kenya's fuel prices are already up, and the naira slipped. US inflation data and the ECB decision come out today.
In this brief
- Attack on a Saudi refinery keeps oil above $110 (World · War and politics)
- The Fed holds rates, but two members wanted a hike (World · Central banks)
- Kenya's fuel prices are already up because of the Middle East war (Kenya · Energy)
- The naira slips to about ₦1,368 per dollar (Nigeria · Currencies)
- Why gold and platinum matter for the rand (South Africa · Mining)
World · War and politics
Attack on a Saudi refinery keeps oil above $110
What happened
Iran-backed Houthi rebels from Yemen attacked a large Saudi Arabian refinery this week, according to AP. Brent crude, the main world oil price, rose almost 2% to about $111 a barrel on 28 October. By Thursday morning in Asia it traded near $114, slightly lower on reports of efforts to restart US–Iran talks. The attack is part of the wider 2026 Iran war, which has disrupted shipping near the Strait of Hormuz, a sea route for about a fifth of the world's oil.
Why it matters
When oil supply is at risk, the price of oil usually rises because buyers fear shortages. If the talks make progress, the fear can fade quickly and the price can fall just as fast. That is why oil can jump or drop several percent in a day while this war goes on. High oil also pushes up the cost of petrol, transport and food almost everywhere.
What it can move
- Brent and WTI oilMore attacks or shipping problems tend to push prices up. Peace talks or more supply from other producers tend to pull them down. Moves can be very large in both directions.
- GoldIn times of war, some investors buy gold as a 'safe haven'. This can support the gold price even when other things, like higher US interest rates, push it down.
- Oil company sharesOil producers often earn more when oil is expensive. Airlines and transport companies usually suffer because fuel costs them more.
Sources: Transport Topics / AP: oil prices rise after attack on Saudi refinery (28 Oct 2026) · HDFC Sky: global markets today (29 Oct 2026) · Wikipedia: 2026 Aramco refinery attack (background)
World · Central banks
The Fed holds rates, but two members wanted a hike
What happened
The US Federal Reserve kept its main interest rate at 3.75%–4.00% on 28 October. The vote was 10–2: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack wanted an immediate rise of 0.25 percentage points. The Fed said inflation 'remains elevated'. After the meeting, markets priced a high chance of a rate rise in December (about 83–88%, according to futures data cited by Admirals and Mitrade).
Why it matters
Interest rates are the price of money. When the Fed raises rates, or markets expect it to, US savings and bonds pay more, which often makes the US dollar stronger. That can make it harder for currencies like the rand to gain, and it raises the cost of holding gold, which pays no interest. If US inflation data comes in lower than expected, those expectations can change fast.
What it can move
- US dollar (DXY, EUR/USD)Expectations of higher US rates tend to support the dollar. A sign that inflation is cooling can weaken it.
- GoldGold dipped after the decision, then recovered to about $4,050 an ounce. Higher rate expectations weigh on it, while war worries support it.
- US stocks (S&P 500, Nasdaq)Higher rates make borrowing more expensive for companies and can cool share prices. The S&P 500 still closed 0.28% higher on the day.
Sources: Admirals: Fed rate decision, hawkish hold (28 Oct 2026) · Mitrade: gold after the Fed hold (29 Oct 2026) · The Rio Times: global economy briefing (29 Oct 2026)
Kenya · Energy
Kenya's fuel prices are already up because of the Middle East war
What happened
Kenya's energy regulator EPRA raised maximum pump prices in Nairobi from 15 October to 14 November 2026: petrol to Sh226.96 a litre (up Sh12.93), diesel to Sh227.76 (up Sh9.90) and kerosene to Sh219.85 (up Sh28.49). EPRA said the 'escalating conflict in the Middle East' had disrupted supply and raised import costs.
Why it matters
Kenya imports all its fuel and pays for it in dollars. When oil is expensive, Kenya needs more dollars for the same amount of fuel. That can put pressure on the shilling and push up prices of transport and food, which the Central Bank of Kenya watches when it sets interest rates. The next EPRA review is due mid-November.
What it can move
- USD/KES (Kenyan shilling)A bigger fuel import bill means more demand for dollars, which can weaken the shilling. Strong export income, tourism and money sent home from abroad can support it.
- Nairobi stocks (NSE)Higher fuel costs can hurt transport and manufacturing companies and squeeze household spending.
Sources: The Star: EPRA raises petrol by Sh12.93 (14 Oct 2026)
Nigeria · Currencies
The naira slips to about ₦1,368 per dollar
What happened
On 28 October the naira traded near ₦1,368 per dollar on the official market (NFEM), and about ₦1,390 on the street (parallel) market, according to WithinNigeria. Earlier in October it had held around ₦1,330 for most of the month.
Why it matters
Nigeria exports oil, so higher oil prices can bring the country more dollars over time. But the naira also depends on how many dollars the central bank and foreign investors supply, and on demand for imports. A gap between the official and street rate is a sign that dollars are still harder to get for some people.
What it can move
- USD/NGN (naira)More oil income and foreign investment can support the naira. Strong demand for dollars, for imports or for savings, can weaken it.
- Nigerian stocks (NGX)A weaker naira can raise costs for companies that import, while exporters can benefit.
South Africa · Mining
Why gold and platinum matter for the rand
What happened
Today's brief has no single South African headline, but two world stories touch the rand. Gold is near $4,050 an ounce, and the Fed has signalled it may raise rates again. In August the rand broke through R16 per dollar for the first time in six months, helped by a weaker dollar, rising gold and platinum prices and foreign buying of South African bonds, according to eNCA.
Why it matters
South Africa is a big miner of gold and platinum. When those metals are expensive, the country earns more dollars, which tends to help the rand. When US interest rates rise, investors often move money from emerging markets like South Africa back to the US, which tends to weaken the rand. Both forces are active right now, which is why USD/ZAR can move sharply on US news days.
What it can move
- USD/ZAR (rand)High gold and platinum prices and a weaker dollar tend to help the rand. Expectations of higher US rates or global fear tend to weaken it.
- JSE mining sharesGold and platinum miners usually benefit from higher metal prices, but their costs, like electricity and wages, matter too.
Sources: eNCA: rand strengthens past R16 to the dollar (25 Aug 2026) · Mitrade: gold after the Fed hold (29 Oct 2026)
What to watch today
- US GDP for July–September and September PCE inflation: 15:30 EAT, 14:30 SAST, 13:30 WAT. Inflation higher than expected would strengthen the case for a December Fed hike.
- European Central Bank decision: 16:15 EAT, 15:15 SAST, 14:15 WAT, with the press conference 30 minutes later. Markets expect no change to its 2.50% deposit rate.
- Oil: any news on US–Iran talks or new attacks on Gulf energy sites.
Session times, the economic calendar and live prices are on the Today page.
Words in this brief
- Brent
- The main world oil price, based on oil from the North Sea. WTI is the US oil price.
- Safe haven
- Something investors buy when they are worried, such as gold or the US dollar.
- Interest rate hike
- When a central bank raises the price of borrowing money. It usually slows spending and inflation.
- PCE inflation
- The Fed's favourite measure of how fast prices are rising in the US.
- Parallel market
- The unofficial street market for dollars, often at a different rate from the official one.
More terms in the trading glossary. New to this? Start with how to trade the news and fundamental analysis.
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