Market brief: Oil falls 7% on Iran talks; US drops SA from AGOA

In this brief

Oil drops more than 7% on hopes of US–Iran talks (World · War and politics)
A tech share sell-off drags gold to a one-year low (World · Companies)
The US will remove South Africa from the AGOA trade deal (South Africa · War and politics)
Kenya's inflation rises to 7.3%, the highest since July 2023 (Kenya · Central banks)
Dangote cuts its petrol price as the naira holds near ₦1,346 (Nigeria · Energy)

World · War and politics

Oil drops more than 7% on hopes of US–Iran talks

What happened

Brent crude, the main world oil price, settled at $104.77 a barrel on 2 November, down 7.63%, according to Seoul Economic Daily. WTI, the US price, closed at $96.46, down 7.36%. Iran's foreign minister said a Qatar-brokered plan could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days, and said talks were 'ongoing and progressing', Reuters reported. Washington had not publicly responded. A day earlier, on 1 November, the OPEC+ group of oil producers kept its December output targets unchanged for a third month. Iran's Revolutionary Guards also claimed that two more tankers hit mines in Hormuz, which was not independently confirmed.

Why it matters

Part of the oil price is a 'risk premium': extra money buyers pay because they fear supply could be cut. When peace looks closer, that premium can disappear fast, which is what happened on Monday. If talks stall or new attacks happen, it can come back just as fast. Lower oil can ease fuel import bills in Kenya and South Africa, but it means less income for oil exporters like Nigeria.

What it can move

Brent and WTI oilProgress in US–Iran talks and more shipping through Hormuz tend to pull prices down. New attacks, failed talks or tighter supply from producers tend to push them up. Daily moves of 5% or more are possible while the war goes on.
USD/NGN (naira)Lower oil prices can mean fewer dollars coming into Nigeria over time, which can weigh on the naira. Steady central bank dollar sales and foreign investment can support it.
Airline and transport sharesCheaper fuel can help airlines and transport firms. If oil jumps again, their costs rise and their shares often suffer.

Sources: Seoul Economic Daily: oil plunges 7% on US–Iran talks hopes (3 Nov 2026) · Reuters via Yahoo Finance: oil drops as Iran signals openness to talks (2 Nov 2026) · FinanceFeeds: Brent near $110 after OPEC+ holds December targets (2 Nov 2026)

World · Companies

A tech share sell-off drags gold to a one-year low

What happened

The Nasdaq, the US index full of tech companies, fell 2.86% to 25,437 on Friday 30 October, The Rio Times reported, as investors doubted that heavy spending on AI will pay off. It fell another 1.07% to 25,164 on Monday 2 November. Oracle dropped 8.85% after announcing a $20 billion capital raise, and Intel fell 8.80%, according to Seoul Economic Daily. Gold fell more than 3% to about $3,875–$3,880 an ounce, its lowest in a year, according to Mitrade and The Rio Times. Prediction market Polymarket showed about a 70% chance of a Fed rate rise on 8–9 December.

Why it matters

When share prices fall fast, some investors get a 'margin call': their broker asks for more money because their loans are now too large for their account. To raise cash quickly, they often sell things that are easy to sell, like gold. That is why gold can fall even in a time of war. Expectations of higher US interest rates also make gold, which pays no interest, less attractive.

What it can move

Gold (XAU/USD)Forced selling and higher US rate expectations tend to push gold down. If the sell-off ends or war fears return, buyers looking for a 'safe haven' can push it back up.
Nasdaq 100Doubts about AI spending and higher rates tend to weigh on tech shares. Strong company results or softer US jobs data can help them recover.
JSE gold minersA lower gold price can cut the profits of South African gold miners. A rebound in gold usually helps them.

Sources: The Rio Times: Nasdaq falls 2.9% on Fed hike fears (2 Nov 2026) · Mitrade: gold selloff on liquidation and Fed hike fears (2 Nov 2026) · Seoul Economic Daily: oil plunges 7%, stocks mixed as AI shares slide (3 Nov 2026)

South Africa · War and politics

The US will remove South Africa from the AGOA trade deal

What happened

On 2 November, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said South Africa and Rwanda will be excluded from AGOA, a US law that lets many African goods enter the US without import taxes. eNCA reported that the change takes effect on 1 January. Trade Minister Parks Tau said South Africa has 60 days to appeal. South Africa's AGOA exports were about $1.7 billion in 2025, down from $4 billion in 2024, Daily Maverick reported. That is about 1% of all South African exports. Citrus, macadamia nuts and some food products are among those affected. Earlier on Monday, before the news, the rand traded at R16.64 per dollar and the JSE Top-40 index rose about 1%, Reuters reported via CNBC Africa.

Why it matters

Losing AGOA means some South African goods will cost more in the US, which can hurt farmers and factories that sell there. The direct effect is small, because almost two-thirds of exports to the US are precious metals and minerals that pay no duty anyway. But markets also watch what the decision says about US–South Africa relations. Worse relations can make foreign investors more careful, which can weigh on the rand.

What it can move

USD/ZAR (rand)Signs of worse trade relations can weaken the rand. A successful appeal, a weaker US dollar or higher metal prices can support it.
JSE farming and food exportersHigher US import taxes can cut sales and profits for citrus and nut exporters. New markets or a reversal of the decision can help them.

Sources: eNCA: Trump terminates South Africa from AGOA (2 Nov 2026) · Daily Maverick: experts weigh in after SA is removed from AGOA (3 Nov 2026) · CNBC Africa / Reuters: rand edges up as manufacturing sentiment improves (2 Nov 2026)

Kenya · Central banks

Kenya's inflation rises to 7.3%, the highest since July 2023

What happened

Kenya's statistics office KNBS said on 30 October that inflation rose to 7.3% in October, from 6.8% in September. Transport costs were 17.1% higher than a year ago, and food and drink 10.2% higher. Diesel was up 32.5% and petrol up 22.8% over the year. Non-core inflation, which includes fuel and food, rose to 15.1%. Core inflation, which leaves them out, rose to 4.3% from 4.0%.

Why it matters

Inflation means prices are rising and money buys less. The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) tries to keep inflation inside a target range, and rising inflation can make it less willing to cut interest rates, or more willing to raise them. Higher rates can make Kenyan savings and government bonds more attractive, which can support the shilling. Monday's fall in world oil prices could ease fuel costs later, but Kenya's pump prices only change at the monthly EPRA review, due mid-November.

What it can move

USD/KES (shilling)Expensive fuel imports mean more demand for dollars, which can weaken the shilling. Higher interest rates, strong exports and money sent home from abroad can support it.
Kenyan Treasury bills and bondsHigher inflation often pushes the interest rates on new government debt up. If inflation eases, those rates can fall.

Sources: Citizen Digital: Kenya's inflation rises to 7.3% in October (31 Oct 2026)

Nigeria · Energy

Dangote cuts its petrol price as the naira holds near ₦1,346

What happened

The Dangote refinery cut its gantry price for petrol, the price at which it sells to fuel marketers at the depot. Naija News reported a cut of ₦55 to ₦1,210 a litre, from ₦1,265, after a fall in the European petrol benchmark. Legit.ng reported the new price as ₦1,215. Petrol was selling for ₦1,370–₦1,429 a litre at stations in Abuja, and new pump prices had not yet been announced, Legit.ng said on 2 November. On the official market (NFEM), the naira closed at about ₦1,346 per dollar on 30 October, a small gain, according to Vanguard. Street (parallel) market dealers sold dollars at about ₦1,386.

Why it matters

Fuel is one of the biggest costs for Nigerian households and businesses. Cheaper petrol can slow inflation, which the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) watches when it sets interest rates. The naira matters for the same reason: a stronger naira makes imports cheaper. But Nigeria earns most of its dollars from oil, so a big fall in oil prices can reduce dollar income later.

What it can move

USD/NGN (naira)Steady dollar supply from the CBN and foreign investors can support the naira. Lower oil income or strong demand for dollars can weaken it.
Nigerian stocks (NGX)Lower fuel costs can help consumer and transport companies. Oil and gas companies can earn less if oil prices keep falling.

Sources: Naija News: Dangote refinery cuts petrol price to ₦1,210 (2 Nov 2026) · Legit.ng: Dangote cuts petrol price to ₦1,215 (2 Nov 2026) · Vanguard: dollar to naira exchange rate today (2 Nov 2026)

What to watch today

US midterm elections today. Polls in the first states close at 18:00–19:00 US Eastern time, which is 02:00–03:00 EAT, 01:00–02:00 SAST and 00:00–01:00 WAT on Wednesday. Early results can move the dollar, US shares and oil overnight.
US JOLTS job openings for September: 18:00 EAT, 17:00 SAST, 16:00 WAT. US clocks went back one hour on 1 November, so US data now comes out one hour later in African time than in October.
Oil: any US response to Iran's two-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and any new tanker attacks.
Later this week: Bank of England decision on Thursday 5 November and US jobs report (payrolls) on Friday 6 November.

Session times, the economic calendar and live prices are on the Today page.

Words in this brief

Settle: The official closing price of a futures contract for the day. News reports often quote it as the day's oil price.
Risk premium: The extra amount buyers pay because they fear something bad, such as a supply cut. It can vanish quickly when the fear fades.
Margin call: A demand from a broker for more money when losses make a trader's borrowed position too big for their account.
AGOA: The African Growth and Opportunity Act, a US law that lets many goods from eligible African countries enter the US without import taxes.
Core inflation: Price rises without the most jumpy items, such as food and fuel. Central banks watch it to see the underlying trend.
Gantry price: The price a refinery or depot charges fuel marketers when they load trucks. Pump prices are usually higher.

More terms in the trading glossary. New to this? Start with how to trade the news and fundamental analysis.

This brief explains the news and how markets have tended to react. It is not advice and not a signal to buy or sell. Prices can move against any explanation, and leveraged trading can lose you more than you expect. Read our risk warning.