Market brief · Thursday, 5 November 2026

Oil drops 9% after US midterms; BoE set to raise rates

Oil fell about 9% on Wednesday, with Brent near $94 a barrel, as the Democrats' win in the US Congress raised hopes of an end to the Iran war. Gold climbed back above $4,000 and the rand reached a two-week high. The Bank of England is widely expected to raise its rate to 4% today.

By the Africa.Forex research desk · Thursday, 5 November 2026 · Written with AI from the sources linked under each story

In this brief

Oil falls about 9% as markets bet on an end to the Iran war (World · Energy)
The Bank of England is expected to raise rates today (World · Central banks)
Gold climbs back above $4,000, platinum and silver jump (World · Mining)
The rand reaches a two-week high as votes are counted (South Africa · Currencies)
Kenya's private sector grows faster; World Bank lifts its forecast (Kenya · Factories and jobs)
The naira edges lower as oil, Nigeria's main export, slumps (Nigeria · Currencies)

World · Energy

Oil falls about 9% as markets bet on an end to the Iran war

What happened

Brent crude, the main world oil price, fell 9.2% to $94.11 a barrel on 4 November, according to AP. It was the first time in nearly a month that Brent traded below $100. WTI, the US oil price, settled at $88.12, down more than 8%, according to CNBC figures cited by StockTitan. US Vice President JD Vance blamed the Iran war, which pushed up fuel prices, for his party's losses in the midterm elections. In Asian trade on Thursday morning, Brent was near $93.9, down another 0.7%, and close to 20% lower for the week, according to HDFC Sky. AP noted that Brent has ranged from about $70 to $120 since just before the war began.

Why it matters

Since the war began, the oil price has carried a 'risk premium': extra money buyers pay because they fear supply will be cut, for example at the Strait of Hormuz. When traders think the war may end, that premium can shrink fast, as it did on Wednesday. The opposite can happen just as fast if talks fail or new attacks hit Gulf energy sites. Cheaper oil helps fuel importers such as Kenya and South Africa, but it cuts the dollar income of oil exporters such as Nigeria.

What it can move

Brent and WTI oilSigns of peace talks or calmer shipping at Hormuz tend to pull prices down. New attacks, failed talks or supply cuts by producers tend to push them up. Daily moves of 5% or more have been common in this war.
Oil company sharesProducers often earn less when oil falls: ExxonMobil fell 4.8% and ConocoPhillips 5.9% by midday on Wednesday, AP reported. Airlines and transport firms often gain because fuel costs them less. A rebound in oil can reverse both moves.
USD/NGN (Nigerian naira)Lower oil prices mean fewer dollars from Nigeria's oil sales, which can weaken the naira over time. Higher oil prices or strong investor inflows can support it.

Sources: Transport Topics / AP: oil prices sink as markets soar on midterm results (4 Nov 2026) · StockTitan: stock market today, 4 November 2026 (4 Nov 2026) · HDFC Sky: global markets today (5 Nov 2026)

World · Central banks

The Bank of England is expected to raise rates today

What happened

The Bank of England (BoE), the UK's central bank, announces its decision on Thursday 5 November. Its main interest rate is 3.75%, and traders widely expect a rise to 4%, Yahoo Finance UK reported on 1 November. It would be the first rise since August 2023. UK inflation rose to 3.5% in September, the highest in 11 months and well above the BoE's 2% target. Higher petrol and diesel prices linked to the Middle East war are a major reason.

Why it matters

A central bank raises rates to slow price rises. Higher UK rates can make the British pound more attractive, because UK savings and bonds pay more. But much of this rise is already expected, so the market reaction often depends on the vote split and on what the BoE says about the next steps. Wednesday's oil drop may also change how worried the BoE sounds about future inflation.

What it can move

GBP/USD (British pound)A rise with signs of more to come tends to support the pound. A surprise hold, or a message that this is the only rise, can weaken it.
UK shares (FTSE 100)Higher rates make borrowing dearer and can weigh on shares, especially property firms and housebuilders. A softer message can help them.

Sources: Yahoo Finance UK: Bank of England expected to raise interest rates for first time since 2023 (1 Nov 2026)

World · Mining

Gold climbs back above $4,000, platinum and silver jump

What happened

Spot gold rose back above $4,000 an ounce on 4 November, near $4,040 at one point, The Rio Times reported. Silver rose about 4.4% to near $52. The main US platinum fund (PPLT) gained 5.6%. The US dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.37% to 101.49, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 4.90%. Both gold and silver had hit 12-month lows on 30 October.

Why it matters

Gold pays no interest. When US bond yields fall, holding gold costs less in lost interest, so demand can rise. A weaker dollar also makes gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies. South Africa mines much of the world's platinum and a lot of gold, so higher metal prices can lift mining shares on the JSE and support the rand.

What it can move

Gold (XAU/USD)Lower US yields and a weaker dollar tend to support gold. Strong US jobs data on Friday, or higher yields, can pull it back below $4,000.
JSE mining sharesGold and platinum miners often rise with metal prices and fall when they drop. A stronger rand can reduce their profits in rand terms.

Sources: The Rio Times: gold tops $4,000 as silver jumps (4 Nov 2026)

South Africa · Currencies

The rand reaches a two-week high as votes are counted

What happened

The rand strengthened about 1.1% to around R16.42 per US dollar on 4 November, a two-week high, according to Trading Economics. It cited a weaker dollar after the US midterm results, firmer gold and silver, and lower oil. On Tuesday the rand had been flat near R16.62 as investors waited for the local elections, Cape Town Etc reported. South Africans voted on Wednesday for the leaders of eight big city councils and hundreds of smaller ones, AP reported. The ANC and DA are each polling near 30% nationally.

Why it matters

The rand often moves with the mood of world markets: when investors feel brave, they buy emerging-market currencies, and when they are worried, they sell them. Lower oil also helps South Africa, which imports most of its fuel. Election results can matter too: investors may see stable city coalitions as positive, and messy ones as a risk for services such as water and power.

What it can move

USD/ZAR (rand)A weaker dollar, cheaper oil and higher metal prices tend to support the rand. A rebound in the dollar, strong US data or unstable election outcomes can weaken it.
South African government bondsA stronger rand and lower oil can make local bonds more attractive to foreign investors. A turn in world risk mood can reverse this.

Sources: Trading Economics: South African rand (4 Nov 2026) · Cape Town Etc: rand braces for turbulence as elections and US trade tensions rattle markets (4 Nov 2026) · ABC News / AP: South Africans vote in local elections (4 Nov 2026)

Kenya · Factories and jobs

Kenya's private sector grows faster; World Bank lifts its forecast

What happened

The Stanbic Kenya PMI rose to 52.5 in October from 51.3 in September, Reuters reported via CNBC Africa on 4 November. A reading above 50 means business activity grew. Manufacturing showed the fastest gains in output and new orders. Inflation rose to 7.3% in October from 6.8% in September. On the same day, the World Bank raised its 2026 growth forecast for Kenya to 4.6% from 4.3%, after 5.2% growth in the first half of the year. It named corruption as the main brake on faster growth.

Why it matters

A PMI (purchasing managers' index) is a monthly survey of companies. It is one of the first signs of where the economy is heading. Faster growth is good for company profits, but inflation at 7.3% limits how far the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) can cut interest rates. Cheaper oil, if it lasts, can ease fuel and transport costs when the energy regulator EPRA sets new pump prices in mid-November.

What it can move

Nairobi stocks (NSE)Stronger business activity can support bank and manufacturing shares. Rising inflation, higher interest rates or weak company results can weigh on them.
USD/KES (Kenyan shilling)Cheaper oil means Kenya needs fewer dollars for fuel, which can help the shilling. A stronger US dollar or lower export and tourism income can weaken it.

Sources: CNBC Africa / Reuters: Kenya private sector rises in October, PMI shows (4 Nov 2026) · Business.co.ke: World Bank raises Kenya 2026 growth forecast to 4.6% (4 Nov 2026)

Nigeria · Currencies

The naira edges lower as oil, Nigeria's main export, slumps

What happened

The naira weakened slightly to N1,347.75 per dollar on the official market (NFEM) on 4 November, from N1,346.00, Arbiterz reported. On the parallel market it was quoted near N1,377. Nigeria's gross foreign reserves fell to $55.168 billion on 2 November from $55.222 billion on 30 October. Separately, a study in a Central Bank of Nigeria journal, reported by Nairametrics on 4 November, found that budget deficits are a main driver of the naira's fall over the long term (1981–2024 data).

Why it matters

Oil sales bring in most of Nigeria's dollars. When oil falls 9% in a day, investors may expect fewer dollars in future, which can put pressure on the naira and on government finances. A bigger budget deficit means more borrowing, and the CBN study links that to a weaker currency. Reserves are the dollars the CBN can use to support the naira, so traders watch them closely.

What it can move

USD/NGN (naira)Lower oil prices and falling reserves can weaken the naira. Higher oil, rising reserves or foreign investors buying Nigerian bonds can support it.
Nigerian stocks (NGX)Oil and gas shares can fall when oil drops. A steadier naira tends to make Nigerian shares more attractive to foreign investors.

Sources: Arbiterz: naira-dollar rate, 4 November 2026 (4 Nov 2026) · Nairametrics: Nigeria's budget deficits fuelling naira depreciation, CBN study finds (4 Nov 2026)

What to watch today

Bank of England decision: 15:00 EAT, 14:00 SAST, 13:00 WAT. Markets expect a rise from 3.75% to 4%. The UK is on winter time (GMT) since 25 October.
US weekly jobless claims: 16:30 EAT, 15:30 SAST, 14:30 WAT. US clocks went back on 1 November, so US data now comes out one hour later in African time than in October.
South Africa's local election count: results come in through the week. EWN reported that final results are due from Sunday.
Oil: any news on US–Iran talks or on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Friday 6 November: US jobs report for October at 16:30 EAT, 15:30 SAST, 14:30 WAT.

Session times, the economic calendar and live prices are on the Today page.

Words in this brief

Risk premium: Extra money buyers pay because they fear something bad, such as a cut in oil supply. It can disappear quickly when the fear fades.
PMI: Purchasing managers' index. A monthly survey of companies. Above 50 means activity grew; below 50 means it shrank.
Bond yield: The return a bond pays each year, as a percentage. When yields fall, gold and other assets that pay no interest often look more attractive.
Basis point: One hundredth of a percentage point. A fall of 5 basis points takes 4.95% to 4.90%.
Foreign reserves: The dollars and other foreign money a central bank holds. It can use them to support its currency.
Midterm elections: US elections held halfway through a president's four-year term, for seats in Congress.

More terms in the trading glossary. New to this? Start with how to trade the news and fundamental analysis.

This brief explains the news and how markets have tended to react. It is not advice and not a signal to buy or sell. Prices can move against any explanation, and leveraged trading can lose you more than you expect. Read our risk warning.